Key Points
- The 2025 GENIUS Act made stablecoin issuers safer, but card rails like Visa and Mastercard stay the primary way high-risk merchants get paid through 2028.
- According to Venable LLP's March 2026 advisory, stablecoin transactions can settle within minutes, compared with one to three business days for card payments.
- Spark reports US merchants paid a record $198.25 billion in card processing fees in 2025, a total that has tripled since 2009.
Card rails still take the order; stablecoins are arriving as a settlement layer behind them.
Quick Answer
No. Visa and Mastercard stay primary for high-risk merchants through 2028. After the GENIUS Act, stablecoin settlement, which refers to receiving dollar-pegged tokens, grows as a treasury layer, because underwriters price business shape.
The stablecoin debate usually stops at fees. According to FinchTrade, credit card interchange ran 1.5% to 3.5% of each transaction plus a flat fee as of March 2025, and stablecoins promise to undercut that. Cheaper is not the same as safer.
Our underwriting team prices prepaid credit, delayed fulfillment, and stored balances, whatever rail the buyer uses. So below, I test what the GENIUS Act changed at your checkout, run the real cost math, and lay out the dual-rail plan I'd use: a dedicated card merchant account first, stablecoin settlement second. Then I put dates on it.
Here is my forecast, dated September 2026: through 2028, card rails stay the primary way high-risk merchants get paid, even after the 2025 GENIUS Act. Stablecoins win a narrower job. They become a settlement and treasury layer, not the front door.
According to Venable LLP's March 2026 advisory, stablecoins are now "an emerging consideration" for merchants. Emerging is the right word. Our underwriting team's view is that a processor prices the shape of a business, such as prepaid credit, delayed fulfillment, and stored balances, rather than its product label. A new payment rail does not change that shape.
Questions this article answers
What did the GENIUS Act actually change for high-risk merchants?
In our underwriting view, processors price a merchant's business shape, not its payment rail. The GENIUS Act made stablecoin issuers safer; it did not change that shape.
An analysis of 16 sources shows the same split. I use a simple issuer-versus-checkout test: ask what a new rule changes for the coin, then ask what it changes at your checkout.
- For the issuer: once the law's requirements take effect, US merchants must accept only coins from a "permitted stablecoin issuer."
- For settlement: according to Venable LLP's March 2026 merchant advisory, stablecoin transactions can settle within minutes, compared with one to three business days for card payments.
- For your books: the Internal Revenue Service treats stablecoins as property, so each sale needs a dollar value and each conversion to fiat needs gain or loss accounting.
CNBC described the signing as the moment stablecoins "made it big in the U.S." A common misconception is that the law created checkout demand. The reality is different. Venable found consumer demand "remains low at this time and uneven across customer segments, industries, and geographies."
In practice, the law legitimized a settlement asset. It did not rewrite underwriting. In our experience, underwriters still price prepaid credit, delayed fulfillment, and stored balances, whichever rail the buyer uses. So the documentation high-risk underwriters need, what a high-risk merchant account costs, and how reserves on held funds work all still follow the business, not the coin.
What 12-24 months May Bring
Where stablecoin and card rails split high-risk volume
Dated forecasts on how US high-risk merchants will divide payments between card rails and GENIUS Act-era stablecoin settlement through 2028.
How high-risk payment rails shift by 2028
Read each forecast as a dated call on fees, settlement speed, disputes or regulation, and weigh it against the evidence that would overturn it.
High-risk merchants will increasingly use stablecoin settlement to shorten their cash cycle. They will receive funds within minutes, around the clock, instead of waiting 24-48 hours for card payments to clear. Card rails, along with their rolling reserves, will stay in place for consumer checkout.
High-risk merchants that add stablecoins will still handle disputes. Over the next 12-24 months, they will build or buy refund workflows for irreversible stablecoin payments. Buyers of future deliverables and recurring billing will keep paying by card for its chargeback and consumer protection.
With the GENIUS Act signed into law and requiring 1:1 reserve backing, US processors will treat regulated dollar stablecoins as an acceptable settlement asset. Most high-risk merchants, however, will receive them through conversion services that pay out in fiat, because holding stablecoins brings property-style tax accounting on every transaction.
Over the next 12-24 months, a growing share of consumer stablecoin spending will run over Visa and Mastercard, through stablecoin-funded cards and network-built blockchain products. As a result, stablecoin growth will reinforce card acceptance at merchants rather than bypass it.
Over the next 12-24 months, more US high-risk merchants will offer stablecoin payment as a discounted option beside cards. They will price the stablecoin lane below card checkout to pass on part of the fee gap, as card processing costs build on 2025's record $198.25 billion.
Through 2028, payment providers will converge on offering both rails from a single relationship. Stablecoin-first services will add card acceptance through bank partners, and processors serving high-risk merchants will add crypto partners. Neither rail will displace the other.
Weak Signals Worth Watching Merchants paid a record $198.25 billion in card processing fees in 2025, a figure that has tripled since 2009. Small merchants say card fees of 3 to 4% can consume about half of a 5% to 10% margin. Proposals already circulate to price stablecoin sales 1.4% to 2.8% below card sales. Venable notes that stablecoin transactions can settle within minutes, versus one to three business days for card payments. Practitioners working with high-risk merchants list rolling reserves and onboarding delays alongside chargebacks as core card-rail pain points. One stablecoin payments founder is weighing a bank partnership to add card acceptance. An operator working with high-risk merchants is integrating crypto partners. Crossmint already gives agents a choice between stablecoin wallets and Visa or Mastercard access. Venable warns that because stablecoin settlement is irreversible, merchants must design their own refund workflows. Card disputes cost $15 per dispute at a major gateway, and high-risk businesses are defined partly by being more chargeback-prone than traditional acquiring. The IRS treats stablecoins as property, so merchants must value each transaction in dollars and book gains or losses on conversion. Crypto-to-fiat platforms already pay merchants in fiat the next day and pass the conversion cost to customers. Crypto-funded card spend reached roughly $18 billion annualized in 2025, growing more than 100% while peer-to-peer crypto payments stayed flat. In June 2026, Mastercard announced a blockchain-based agent pay product for machines.
Sources behind the stablecoin and card calls
Public research, pricing data and practitioner accounts behind each forecast, with the specific line each source contributes.
| Source | What it states | Forecasts it backs |
|---|---|---|
| Stablecoins at the Checkout: How Mobile-First Markets Are [Web source] | Card settlement "typically" happens at day's end. Merchants wait "24-48 hours for the card payment to clear.". “In short, stablecoins can move value across the world as easily as sending a text message, and for a fraction of the cost of card payments or bank wires.” | Stablecoin settlement becomes the high-risk liquidity lane |
| Are Stablecoins Replacing Visa and Mastercard? - Crossmint [Web source] | Stablecoin transfers settle in hundreds of milliseconds to two minutes, 24/7/365, at costs from less than $0.01 (Solana) to about $0.50 (Ethereum Layer 2s). “When you understand the architecture, the real story emerges: stablecoins are replacing ACH and SWIFT, not Visa and Mastercard.” | Stablecoin settlement becomes the high-risk liquidity lane |
| Accept stablecoin payments easily (should I add card payments too?) [Community / Forum] | Commenter 2 named three card-rail pain points for high-risk merchants: chargebacks, rolling reserves, and onboarding delays. “too expensive, lots of requirements, and long wait times” The founder is considering a bank partnership to add card acceptance alongside stablecoins. |
Stablecoin settlement becomes the high-risk liquidity lane Providers converge on card-plus-stablecoin acceptance |
| Stablecoins: An Emerging Consideration for Merchants | Insights [Web source] | Stablecoin transactions can settle within minutes, compared with one to three business days for ACH or card payments. “For many merchants, stablecoin acceptance may initially function as a niche or experimental offering rather than a primary payment method.” Stablecoin transactions are generally irreversible once settled, unlike card-based payments. Merchants must build bespoke refund workflows and decide whether refunds are issued in stablecoin or fiat, and how timing and valuation are… The Internal Revenue Service treats stablecoins as property. Merchants must determine the U.S. dollar value at the time of each transaction, report it as income, and account for gains or losses upon conversion to fiat. |
Stablecoin settlement becomes the high-risk liquidity lane Irreversible settlement shifts dispute work, not ends it GENIUS Act makes dollar stablecoins a settlement asset |
| 6 Best Payment Gateways That Scale for High-Volume Fintech Apps [Blog] | Disputes (chargebacks) cost $15 per dispute. “If you are building a fintech product or looking to migrate to a new payment gateway for your fintech app, the choice you make will directly impact approval…” | Irreversible settlement shifts dispute work, not ends it |
| Boarding High-Risk Merchants & Navigating Industry Shifts [Web source] | [3:25] Speaker 2 defined high-risk as any model a conservative bank doesn't love, such as future deliverables, recurring billing, or businesses more chargeback-prone than traditional acquiring. | Irreversible settlement shifts dispute work, not ends it |
| Why you might one day use stablecoins in place of credit cards or [Community / Forum] | Stablecoins lack a chargeback mechanism and don't offer rewards points; credit cards offer both points and consumer protection (Comment 3). “Credit cards give points and come with consumer protection. Stablecoins do not give points and don't have a chargeback mechanism.” The GENIUS Act requires 1:1 reserve backing for stablecoins and sets clear rules for issuers (Comment 5, bot summary). |
Irreversible settlement shifts dispute work, not ends it GENIUS Act makes dollar stablecoins a settlement asset |
| How Stablecoins Could Help Small Businesses Slash Credit Card [Video] | President Trump signed the Genius Act into law, which is how stablecoins "made it big in the U.S." (Narrator, [0:00]). “Stablecoins have proven that moving money is really good for consumers, and merchants like it because they don't suffer from chargebacks.” Credit card fees "can be like 3 to 4%." For a company making a "5%, 10% profit margin," that is about "half of their earnings." (Unnamed speaker, [2:18]). |
GENIUS Act makes dollar stablecoins a settlement asset Record card fees push discounted stablecoin checkout |
| How are (high-risk) merchants handling crypto payment [Community / Forum] | A commenter representing a crypto-to-fiat platform says it is "integrated into all platforms." Customers pay in crypto, and the merchant receives fiat the next day. The platform passes its conversion cost to the customer. “most “crypto gateways” still feel like banks in disguise, so merchants expect freedom and end up with the same freezes + KYC pain.” The same commenter says their operation is "currently trying to integrate" crypto partners. |
GENIUS Act makes dollar stablecoins a settlement asset Providers converge on card-plus-stablecoin acceptance |
| Stablecoin Cards in 2026 - insights4vc [Substack / Newsletter] | Crypto-funded cards process roughly ~$18B annualized, approaching on-chain P2P stablecoin volumes (~$19B). 2025 card growth exceeded 100% YoY, while P2P crypto payments were relatively flat. “After a breakout 2025, monthly crypto card spend rose from roughly $100M in early 2023 to about $1.5B by late 2025, implying an annualized ~$18B, around 15x…” | Card networks absorb stablecoin spending |
| Future of Finance #4: The rails debate: do agents need stablecoins? [Web source] | In June (2026, per the publish date), Mastercard announced it is "rolling out a product agent pay for machines that's blockchain based.". “I mean, if you look at X402, it's last I checked, thirty thousand dollars a day, roughly.” Crossmint currently gives agents either a stablecoin wallet and stablecoins, or access to Visa and Mastercard. Amex will be added "once their product is ready.". |
Card networks absorb stablecoin spending Providers converge on card-plus-stablecoin acceptance |
| Agentic Payments: When Money Starts To Think: By Retired Member [Web source] | Card networks and acquirers are integrating programmable settlement, off-card rails (stablecoins, RTP), and agent-friendly credentials. This lets tokenized cards authorise machine-to-machine payments with embedded spend limits. “Agentic payments are moving from slideware to architecture.” | Card networks absorb stablecoin spending |
| Stablecoin Merchant Fees vs Card Processing: Cost Breakdown [Web source] | US merchants paid $198.25 billion in card processing fees in 2025, a record that has tripled since 2009 (Spark). Rates cited reflect US pricing from major processors as of mid-2026. | Record card fees push discounted stablecoin checkout |
| Ethereum Stablecoins vs Credit Cards [Community / Forum] | The poster proposes that sellers accept stablecoins (DAI, USDC) and charge 1.4% to 2.8% less on stablecoin transactions. “This is just an idea with some napkin math.” | Record card fees push discounted stablecoin checkout |
What would tilt high-risk volume off cards
Shifts in consumer behavior, card pricing and stablecoin regulation that would push high-risk merchants toward, or away from, full stablecoin settlement.
Our Margin for Error
We hold 87 with the most confidence, while 75 is the one we would flag as most likely to shift.
- Stablecoin settlement becomes the high-risk liquidity lane. Expect that call to give way first should buyers or regulators reverse course.
- Card networks absorb stablecoin spending. Stronger contrary evidence in the sources would make that the sturdier forecast.
Are stablecoins really cheaper than a high-risk card merchant account?
On the headline fee, yes. Once refunds, conversion, and compliance are counted, the gap narrows, and the risk our underwriters price does not disappear with the rail.
The fee pressure is real. In a CNBC report, one voice put it bluntly: credit card fees "can be like 3 to 4%," which for a business running a "5%, 10% profit margin" is about "half of their earnings." Interchange also scales with risk. Its percentage portion usually runs between 1% and 3%, depending on the issuing bank, the network, and the merchant risk profile.
So why don't I tell high-risk merchants to switch? I run every option through a total-cost test:
- Reversibility: according to Venable, stablecoin transactions are "generally irreversible once they are settled," so merchants must build their own refund workflows and decide refund currency, timing, and valuation.
- Hidden offsets: Venable warns the savings "may be partially offset by custody arrangements, compliance tooling, and processor markups."
- Conversion: stablecoin flows need on and off ramps plus separate compliance workflows.
Contrary to popular belief, a cheaper rail does not change what underwriters price. In our experience, that is prepaid credit, delayed fulfillment, and stored balances. A preorder or subscription buyer still expects a refund when something goes wrong.
The takeaway: stablecoins cut the fee, not the risk. In practice, dispute costs turn into refund staffing costs.
What is the best way for high-risk online businesses to take payments through 2028?
Keep a dedicated high-risk credit card merchant account as your primary checkout, then add stablecoin settlement as a layer. In our underwriting view, processor fit matters more than the rail.
Venable expects that for many merchants, stablecoin acceptance "may initially function as a niche or experimental offering rather than a primary payment method." Its authors add that adoption "will likely remain modest" until processors, gateways, and acquirers support stablecoins "alongside traditional payment methods."
Meanwhile, the card networks are moving in, not out. Venable reports networks are "upping their stablecoin integrations and offerings." In CNBC's coverage, the Visa side explained: "We have leaned in because we said, okay, it actually does help with some use cases."
A common misconception is that adding stablecoins means leaving your processor. I'd recommend a three-step dual-rail plan instead:
- Protect the card account. In our experience, an application should describe your real business shape and how each risk is controlled.
- Pick a processor that already boards your shape. Ask whether it has underwritten businesses like yours before.
- Pilot stablecoins where they pay off. Venable points to lower transaction costs, faster settlement, and enhanced global reach.
What this means: stablecoins arrive as an add-on to a card relationship. They are not an exit from one.
What will matter most for high-risk payments in the next 12-24 months?
In my view, three things matter most: card fee pressure, settlement speed, and who handles conversion. None of them pushes high-risk merchants off card rails.
| Prediction | Weak signal | Why it matters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted stablecoin lanes appear beside cards | Spark's mid-2026 comparison puts in-person credit card rates at 2.3% to 2.8%. A 2019 proposal already suggested pricing stablecoin sales 1.4% to 2.8% below card sales. | Merchants can recover margin without giving up the card checkout buyers trust. | Spark |
| Stablecoin settlement becomes a cash-flow tool | Stablecoin transfers settle in hundreds of milliseconds to two minutes, 24/7/365. A 2025 Finextra post described a 24-48 hour wait for card payments to clear. | For merchants carrying reserves, days of cash can matter as much as the rate. | Crossmint; Finextra |
| Processors convert stablecoins to dollars for most merchants | One crypto-to-fiat operator already pays merchants in fiat the next day and passes its conversion cost to the customer. | The law lowered issuer risk, not bookkeeping. Conversion keeps your books in dollars. | Public forum thread |
What most buyers miss: the win is measured in days of cash, not basis points. I would revise this forecast if stablecoin wallets reach checkout at scale, or if providers add dispute protections that buyers actually trust.
My bet for 2028: stablecoins will settle more high-risk money, but cards will still take the order. When card fees can eat about half of a thin margin, and interchange climbs with your risk profile, the pull toward a cheaper rail is real. It still does not reprice the business. According to Venable, settled stablecoin payments are generally irreversible, so refund risk simply moves in-house.
Our underwriting team frames the real question as fit. Has this processor boarded your shape before? Start there, then let stablecoin settlement prove itself on your slowest cash cycle.
Written by
Lily Flanigan
Operations Manager, SeamlessChex
Lily Flanigan is Operations Manager at SeamlessChex, a credit card processing and fintech payments platform recognized on the Inc. 5000, where she focuses on operations and process optimization.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Will stablecoins replace credit cards for high-risk merchants by 2028?
I don't expect them to. Card rails should stay the primary way high-risk merchants get paid through 2028. Stablecoin settlement, receiving funds as a dollar-pegged digital token, will grow beside cards as a treasury layer.
Why are card processing fees so high for high-risk businesses?
US merchants paid a record $198.25 billion in card processing fees in 2025, a total that has tripled since 2009. Interchange, the fee the card-issuing bank collects on each sale, combines a flat per-transaction charge with a percentage tied partly to your risk profile. That is why processor fit matters as much as the headline rate.
Did the GENIUS Act make stablecoins safe to accept?
It made issuers safer. It did not change what drives your approval: refund exposure, fulfillment timing, and dispute history. A regulated coin does not make a risky model less risky.
Can customers dispute a stablecoin payment?
Not the way they dispute a card charge. According to Venable, settled stablecoin payments are generally irreversible, so merchants must decide whether refunds go out in stablecoin or fiat. The dispute work moves to your own support team.
Should my business add stablecoin payments now?
I'd pilot them only after your card merchant account is stable. SeamlessChex works with established, operating businesses, and I'd start any stablecoin test where faster settlement clearly improves cash flow.
To qualify for a SeamlessChex account, a business needs an established operating history and $25,000+ in monthly processing volume.